A worldwide effort to stamp out polio and malaria is very commendable, if somewhat unlikely but this has to make you wonder what really goes on inside the head of the man who won the IT lottery.
Bill Gates in bid to tame hurricanes – Times Online.
Now by itself this seems like a bit of a wacky story unless you think there might be more to this than meets the eye. If you have a look at the TimesOnline you will also see this uplifting little story about the likelyhood of success in Copenhagen on the small matter of carbon emissions. So here’s a radical little idea for you. As seems pretty bloody obvious, the chances of any first world government making a substantial pledge to cut greenhouse gases in line with IPCC projections is remote, it might happen but it probably wont. The reason it wont happen is economics.
No, its not the economics of climate change, the cost of doing something versus the costs that might arise from of doing nothing, rather it is that governments are not (by and large) in a position to dictate to vested economic interests. In fact governments are pretty much captive to the economy and economies are pretty much chained to carbon. This bond is based on two rather central carbon products, oil and coal, our economies are pretty much unthinkable without them.
In a theoretical situation, one that many greens believe is possible, we might be able to devote vast amounts of money to alternative technologies that reduce our consumption of carbon but that would undermine the profitability of many very rich and powerful vested interests. The little saga of the proposed Australian carbon reduction scheme and its extreme generosity to the coal powered electricity generators is just one example. Its this question of profit that I believe is also driving the current renaissance in thinking on the subject of nuclear power. The established players in the nuke industry would love to see dozens of new reactors get built, imagine their profits!
Another problem often cited is the possibility that unwelcome structural adjustment to our high carbon economies will usher in a radical reduction in living standards as well as wholesale unemployment. In other words, the cost of carbon reduction is directly carried by the less economically privileged. Another unpalatable idea for government, although possible not as hard to implement as a direct tax on the wealthy to pay for a conversion to green economy. So what are the options?
Option 1 looks like the odds on favourite, stick your head in the sand, let the climate change denialists continue to muddy the waters and wait to see what really happens while hoping like hell that the scientists are wrong.
Option 2 might get a run, where some symbolic gestures are made that look like we are trying but nothing substantive happens. The climate change denialists continue their campaign, we might build a few more “pilot” alternative power plants, nuclear will definitely get a green light and it will be business as usual all round.
Option 3. Now option 3 occurred to me after reading about Bill. Let’s assume that Global Warming is just an economic problem and forget about all the other species on the planet as well as any silly philosophical issues such as our god given right to plunder the earth and turn everything into a financial asset. Let’s also assume that Global Warming is real, after all what’s the point of having an empirical evidence based science if its not? So taking our cue from Bill what about a bit of Geo-engineering?
The beauty of geo-engineering is it addresses the problem, Global Warming, but we can still keep driving our cars and using our coal fired electricity and it doesn’t costs anywhere near as much as those annoyingly expensive renewable ideas the greens are so keen on. It might even be a profitable line of business for an enterprising start-up. Can you imagine the sales pitch? Wall Street would probably have a meltdown if someone floated a company that claimed it was going to cool the planet by a degree or two.
Of course the science is a bit risky but isn’t that what capitalism is all about?
